Home Sport The most and least likely Super Bowl matchups after the divisional round

The most and least likely Super Bowl matchups after the divisional round

The NFL’s divisional round offered virtually as a lot pleasure as the opening round, with at least one main shock.

That can be the Tennessee Titans, whose upset of the AFC’s top-seeded Baltimore Ravens will give them their first championship recreation look since after the 2002 season. They will face a Kansas City crew that overcame overwhelming odds in the divisional round. Faced with an early 24-Zero deficit at the fingers of the Houston Texans, the Chiefs grew to become first crew in NFL historical past to path by 24 or extra factors in the first half and nonetheless get pleasure from a lead at halftime. According to ESPN, Kansas City’s comeback win was the largest in franchise historical past and tied for the fourth largest by any crew in postseason historical past.

In the NFC, the San Francisco 49ers had little bother dispatching the Minnesota Vikings and the Green Bay Packers held on to defeat the Seattle Seahawks.

Based on every crew’s true expertise stage – which is derived by taking a look at its precise win price and its projected win price primarily based on complete factors scored and allowed – we are able to mission the playoffs 1,000 occasions and see which groups are most likely to succeed in the Super Bowl.

Here are the most likely matchups primarily based on these simulations. Also included are the implied cash line and odds for every contest:

Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers (39% probability)

Odds after divisional round: 39% probability (implied cash line: +150, implied odds: 1.5-1)

Odds after first round: 12% probability (implied cash line: +700, implied odds: 7-1)

Original odds, after the common season: 10% probability (implied cash line: +850, implied odds: 9-1)

The quarterbacks would get high billing on this matchup, the most likely Super Bowl pairing, however the battle to observe can be in the trenches.

San Francisco defensive finish Nick Bosa was nominated for the NFL’s rookie of the 12 months award after ending the common season with 80 complete pressures (sacks, hits and hurries) as a rookie per the recreation charters at Pro Football Focus, 14 greater than any rookie edge defender has recorded in a single season since the begin of the PFF period in 2006. Bosa had two sacks, one quarterback hit and 4 hurries plus three stops in opposition to the run in opposition to Minnesota on Saturday.

He should overcome Packers Pro Bowl left deal with David Bakhtiari, who surrendered simply two sacks all season.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers (31% probability)

Odds after divisional round: 31% probability (implied cash line: +250, implied odds: 2.5-1)

Odds after first round: 8% probability (implied cash line: +1,250, implied odds: 13-1)

Original odds, after the common season: 5% probability (implied cash line: +1,750, implied odds: 18-1)

Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams related on Eight of 11 targets for 160 yards and two touchdowns in opposition to Seattle, pushing their total passer ranking collectively to 108.2 this season, together with the playoffs. They can be hard-pressed to fare that properly in opposition to a Chiefs secondary that permits a 56% catch price (second lowest in the NFL) and 79.2 passer ranking (third lowest) to opposing wideouts this season, together with the playoffs.

Tennessee Titans vs. San Francisco 49ers (17% probability)

Odds after divisional round: 17% probability (implied cash line: +500, implied odds: 5-1)

Odds after first round: 2% probability (implied cash line: +3,950, implied odds: 40-1)

Original odds, after the common season: 1% probability (implied cash line: +9,400, implied odds: 94-1)

Don’t inform Derrick Henry that working backs don’t matter. Since he rested in opposition to the New Orleans Saints in Week 16, Henry has turn into the first again in NFL historical past to hurry for 180 or extra yards in three straight video games. He’s additionally averaging virtually 5 yards per carry after contact in these three video games, with 19 pressured missed tackles. Plus, eight of his 96 makes an attempt have gone for 15 yards or extra. He’s already taken down the AFC’s high seed; this matchup would give him a crack at the NFC’s.

Tennessee Titans vs. Green Bay Packers (13% probability)

Odds after divisional round: 13% probability (implied cash line: +650, implied odds: 6.5-1)

Odds after first round: 1% probability (implied cash line: +6,600, implied odds: 66-1)

Original odds, after the common season: 1% probability (implied cash line: +18,050, implied odds: 180-1)

Green Bay’s rush protection leaves loads to be desired. Its line of defense stopped solely 13% of opposing rushers at or behind the line of scrimmage throughout the common season, leaving solely Detroit with a worse stuff price. Almost two-thirds of rushes on third or fourth down, with two yards or much less to go, achieved a primary down or landing in opposition to Green Bay, the seventh-worst mark in the NFL. So if each underdogs win this weekend, Henry is perhaps licking his chops.

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