Mass. among four states on track to containing coronavirus, model says

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Massachusetts is amongst solely a handful of states that’s on its option to containing COVID-19, in accordance with one mannequin.

The software, created by Covid Act Now, a set of epidemiologists, well being and public coverage consultants, and technologists, reveals the commonwealth is one in every of 4 states “on track” to stopping the unfold of the coronavirus.

The different states are close by, too: Connecticut, New York, and New Jersey, which encompassed a number of the hardest hit areas when the pandemic emerged within the United States in March.

As of Sunday, Massachusetts had logged 108,667 complete possible and confirmed instances, data from the state Department of Public Health shows. The state has seen 8,060 associated deaths over the course of the pandemic.

According to knowledge collected by Covid Act Now that was final up to date Friday, Massachusetts is seeing the variety of energetic instances dropping; can doubtless deal with a brand new wave of COVID-19; has ample testing capability; and has carried out sufficient contact tracing to assist include the virus.

“Massachusetts is on track to contain COVID,” Covid Act Now says on its web site. “Cases are steadily decreasing and Massachusetts’s COVID preparedness meets or exceeds international standards.”

The knowledge reveals the state’s an infection charge has dropped to .75 from a peak of two.76 in March.

“On average, each person in Massachusetts with COVID is infecting 0.75 other people,” the group says. “Because each person is infecting less than one other person, the total number of current cases in Massachusetts is shrinking.”

Meanwhile, the constructive take a look at charge is at 2.three %, down from an apex of 28.9 % on April 15 within the Bay State.

“A low percentage (2.3%) of COVID tests were positive, which suggests enough widespread, aggressive testing in Massachusetts to detect most new cases,” Covid Act Now stated. “Identifying and isolating new cases can help contain COVID without resorting to lockdowns.”

Massachusetts is at the moment within the second a part of Phase 2 in its four-stage reopening plan. As of final week, eating places are actually capable of provide indoor eating to prospects as soon as once more, due to declining metrics, officers stated.

“Per best available data, Massachusetts has 2,500 contact tracers,” Covid Act Now stated. “With an average of 202 new daily cases, we estimate Massachusetts needs 1,010 contact tracing staff to trace all new cases in 48 hours, before too many other people are infected. This means that Massachusetts is likely able to trace 100 percent of new COVID infections in 48 hours. When this level of tracing is coupled with widely available testing, COVID can be contained without resorting to lockdowns.”

Probably not coincidentally, Massachusetts can also be among the many prime 4 states within the nation for normal masks utilization, in accordance with knowledge collected by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) on the University of Washington.

Elsewhere in New England, Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Rhode Island have all “controlled disease growth,” the Covid Act Now map reveals.

Meanwhile, cases in Arizona, Florida, and Texas have surged recently, boosting the variety of instances recorded within the nation previous 2.5 million on Sunday, The Washington Post reports.

The newest mannequin from Covid Act Now says Arizona is experiencing an “active or imminent outbreak” together with Missouri and Alabama. Texas and Florida are “at risk.”